A Game of Chicken

That Warner Bros. Pictures delayed Tenet was a foregone conclusion. The only questions related to that decision would be: when would the film’s new release date be, and would it inspire other studios to follow suit? When Tenet had its date shifted at the end of the day Friday, from July 17 to July 31 (because, as we all know, the pandemic will be much better by the end of July instead of the middle portion of the month), a few other films followed suit, too.

But, for now, not Mulan. In the same way that Disney is now planning to reopen both of its continental theme parks over the course of 7 days in mid-July, they’re still sticking with the July 24 release date for Mulan. If I had to guess, though, I’d say that a) we’ll get a new date for Mulan very soon, and b) Disney only held off on pushing the film Friday because it was already the end of the week. (My prediction: Disney may shift Mulan to the August 14 date that’s opened up now that Wonder Woman 1984 is opening in October.)

The game of chicken going on in popular culture is going to be about the most perversely, grimly exciting thing to keep an eye on for the next few weeks and months. It goes beyond when major motion pictures are going to open, for real; it goes beyond what TV shows are going to look like once they start filming again. That’s because it encompasses those questions, and more. Many states have begun to reopen, and many of those states have found that reopening is a cruel, double-edged sword. Yes, people want to go back out to restaurants and beaches and parks.

But as much as some clung to the hope that warmer temperatures would stifle COVID-19, in states such as California, Texas, Arizona, and Florida, cases continue to increase. (I live in the Phoenix metro area, and would you believe it’s been existentially terrifying to live in a state where cases are skyrocketing and our governor is promising that there’s enough vacancy in our hospitals should I get sick? By the way, it’s been 100 degrees and above here since Memorial Day. The heat ain’t helping.)

Should movie theaters be reopening? Should theme parks be reopening? That question has become vastly unimportant because those businesses need to make money now, or close forever. And that’s why the game of chicken is now a question of whether or not, say, Disneyland really will reopen on its 65th anniversary, July 17. The question isn’t whether it should. (Considering that cases are also increasing in California, the answer is no, it should not.)

Movies like Mulan and Tenet aren’t going to VOD or streaming first, unless the studios are willing to take a massive bath on their huge budgets. There’s a reason why Artemis Fowl wound up on Disney+, and Mulan did not. (It’s because one of those films is terrible enough that it likely was going to lose the studio money if it was in theaters.) They’ll find their way to theaters one day.

But July 24 and July 31 (and July 17 for Disneyland) ain’t it.