First Out of the Gate
You’ll forgive me for having taken a few days off the newsletter, but then, you hopefully have been too focused on the real world since I last posted. (If you haven’t been paying attention to the news, you really should.) In truth, even if I hadn’t been reading the waves and waves of stories of police brutality against peaceful protestors coupled with the not-going-anywhere coronavirus, there wasn’t too much to write about in the world of Disney.
What’s changed? Well, not a whole lot. But I keep thinking about one specific topic in my head, rolling my brain over one question: why is Warner Bros. so gung-ho about releasing Tenet on July 17? (This will get back to Disney, so humor me.)
There was a rumor yesterday that the film was delayed to an indeterminate date in the future. I’m not linking to the rumor because it has yet to be confirmed, and its sourcing is…dubious. But it was a worthy reminder that, as of the writing of this newsletter, we’re 40 days away from the release of the first major theatrical title in four months.
Are you ready to go back to a movie theater? Do you live in a state where you even can go back to a movie theater? It was questionable, at best, when the world was just focused on the pandemic for theaters to reopen. I’m not sure that the continued wave of fierce, bold, and peaceful protests spreading throughout the world makes the prospect of going to the theaters any better.
But here’s why I bring up Tenet. It’s because I’m really wondering why Mulan isn’t the first film out of the gate back into theaters, whenever they’re open enough and safe enough for customers. Listen, I am a big fan of Christopher Nolan. His Batman trilogy is brilliant if imperfect, and films like Inception and Interstellar are remarkable, daring storytelling. Tenet boasts an impressive cast, and the marketing campaign has been mostly effective. (That ad campaign also features a scene where people are either unconscious or dead in a large, crowded theater, which is maybe not the best imagery to include right now.)
The speculation surrounding the film points to Tenet possibly running more than 3 hours long; normally, a studio would likely balk at that, but a) Warner Bros. and Christopher Nolan work very well together, and b) it’s not like there are going to be lots of other new movies competing for timeslots at the multiplex.
However. WB is putting all its eggs in a very risky basket. (I keep seeing stories implying that Christopher Nolan wants his film to be the first to reopen the industry, and whether or not that’s true, he can’t actually force WB to release the film when he says. Unless his contract says as much, which would mean WB was very foolish to write that clause into his contract.) I want to see Tenet. One day, I will. If the movie opens in July, what it means is that I’ll see the film on demand a few months later.
Leave my personal opinion aside. I want to pose this to you: Mulan is a safer bet to reopen the industry. Remember, the movie was slated to open at the end of March, and was delayed only a couple weeks beforehand. What does that mean? The movie’s marketing campaign was in full swing. And unlike Tenet, there’s really no explanation needed to sell an audience. Remember the animated movie? Well, this is the same basic story, but with real people. Whereas the mystery of Tenet is its key selling factor, the lack of mystery is the appeal for Mulan. Both films, of course, feature non-box-office draws. But Mulan doesn’t need A-Listers to draw in the audience. The name is enough of a hook.
I want to be wrong about all this. I would love it if the country is safe enough in mid-July for not only all major movie theaters to reopen, but for all of us to attend a film like Tenet without any concern of getting sick. I would also love it if I woke up to a large pile of money tomorrow. It ain’t happening.
Whenever the movies come back to theaters, the safest, most recognizable bets are going to bring in large audiences. Christopher Nolan is recognizable. But Mulan is a safer bet.